BSC Flap launchpad family new-token discovery, tracked from launch through a 30-day survival window. Regenerated every pipeline run.
Labeled sample size: 54 tokens. Probability a discovered token runs at all: 2%. Last updated 2026-09-08 07:45 UTC.
Ran: 1
Died: 14
Flat: 39
Survival curve (probability still alive by age)
"Alive" = liquidity/volume haven't sustained a drop below the dead-token thresholds — the empirical odds a token discovered here is still alive by a given age.
14.9h
Median time-to-death (n=20)
7.8h
Median time-to-peak, 3x+ (n=2)
Peak multiple reached (how many x's tokens run to)
Across 66 tokens with at least one post-discovery sample. "Peak" = highest market cap ever observed ÷ market cap at discovery — the running max, not a fixed-checkpoint snapshot.
never exceeded discovery MC (<1x)
53 (80%)
1-1.5x
9 (14%)
1.5-2x
2 (3%)
2-3x
0 (0%)
3-5x
0 (0%)
5-10x
2 (3%)
10x+
0 (0%)
By initial market cap size
Segment
Ran
Died
Flat
Total
Ran %
$50k-100k
1
2
7
10
10%
$25k-50k
0
0
9
9
0%
<$25k
0
11
17
28
0%
$100k+
0
1
6
7
0%
By Flap sub-platform
Segment
Ran
Died
Flat
Total
Ran %
flap
1
14
39
54
2%
By social presence at discovery
Segment
Ran
Died
Flat
Total
Ran %
has Twitter/X link
1
9
31
41
2%
no Twitter/X link
0
5
8
13
0%
By 24h buy/sell ratio at discovery
Segment
Ran
Died
Flat
Total
Ran %
buy/sell ratio 1-2x
1
8
13
22
5%
buy/sell ratio 2x+
0
4
7
11
0%
more sells than buys
0
2
19
21
0%
By risk verdict at discovery (holder/security analysis)