Robinhood Chain new-token discovery, tracked from launch through a 30-day survival window. Regenerated every pipeline run.
Labeled sample size: 159 tokens. Probability a discovered token runs at all: 3%. Last updated 2026-09-08 07:50 UTC.
Ran: 5
Died: 42
Flat: 112
Survival curve (probability still alive by age)
"Alive" = liquidity/volume haven't sustained a drop below the dead-token thresholds — the empirical odds a token discovered here is still alive by a given age.
19.2h
Median time-to-death (n=33)
23.9h
Median time-to-peak, 3x+ (n=8)
Peak multiple reached (how many x's tokens run to)
Across 161 tokens with at least one post-discovery sample. "Peak" = highest market cap ever observed ÷ market cap at discovery — the running max, not a fixed-checkpoint snapshot.
never exceeded discovery MC (<1x)
135 (84%)
1-1.5x
10 (6%)
1.5-2x
4 (2%)
2-3x
4 (2%)
3-5x
4 (2%)
5-10x
3 (2%)
10x+
1 (1%)
By initial liquidity size
Segment
Ran
Died
Flat
Total
Ran %
$15k-30k
3
6
55
64
5%
$30k-50k
1
16
21
38
3%
$50k+
1
20
12
33
3%
<$15k
0
0
24
24
0%
By launchpad
Segment
Ran
Died
Flat
Total
Ran %
uniswap
5
42
108
155
3%
By social presence at discovery
Segment
Ran
Died
Flat
Total
Ran %
has Twitter/X link
5
38
103
146
3%
no Twitter/X link
0
4
9
13
0%
By 24h buy/sell ratio at discovery
Segment
Ran
Died
Flat
Total
Ran %
buy/sell ratio 1-2x
4
21
88
113
4%
buy/sell ratio 2x+
1
18
5
24
4%
more sells than buys
0
3
19
22
0%
By risk verdict at discovery (holder/security analysis)